Tetralogue: I'm Right, You're Wrong by Williamson Timothy

Author:Williamson, Timothy
Language: eng
Format: epub, mobi
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Published: 2014-02-14T16:00:00+00:00

{ PART III }

The Advantages of Arrogance

Bob: Watch out, that woman in black who walked past may be a witch! She looks like one to me. When she comes back, don’t let her pick up one of your hairs as she passes. She could use it to put a spell on you.

Sarah: Oh, Bob, do stop all that nonsense! Of course she’s not a witch. She was just going to use the lavatory.

Roxana: According to you, Sarah, she may be a witch.

Sarah: Don’t be absurd. That’s Bob’s foolish idea, not mine.

Roxana: You call yourself a fallibilist. According to you, anyone may be wrong about anything.

Sarah: So?

Roxana: So according to you, you may be wrong that she is not a witch.

Sarah: In principle, yes, but it’s very unlikely.

Roxana: But if you are wrong that she is not a witch, it follows that she is a witch.

Sarah: A big ‘if’!

Roxana: So according to you, since you may be wrong that she is not a witch, she may be a witch.

Sarah: All right, she may be a witch, but that’s very unlikely too.

Roxana: Therefore you were wrong to deny that, according to you, she may be a witch.

Sarah: You needn’t rub it in.

Bob: Careful, she’s coming back. Look at the sun shining on those hills.

Roxana: The sight is unremarkable.

Bob: She’s gone. Did you notice how she put her hand on Zac’s seat as she passed?

Zac: She was steadying herself as the train swayed, Bob.

Bob: She could have picked up a hair without your noticing.

Zac: Bob, I’ll just have to take that risk.

Bob: Do you still deny she’s a witch, Sarah?

Sarah: Yes. She’s no witch. Period.

Bob: You risk saying it outright?

Sarah: Yes, I do. I said before, I have to take a stand somewhere. Life is a risky business. Risking being wrong is the price of being right.

Bob: But you admitted to Roxana, she may be a witch.

Sarah: Yes, what’s the problem? That’s my fallibilism.

Roxana: When Bob accuses that woman of witchcraft, you say ‘She is innocent, but she may not be innocent’.

Zac: That won’t sound very convincing, Sarah.

Sarah: But it’s true!

Bob: Saying ‘She’s innocent, but she may not be’, you give with one hand, then take back with the other.

Sarah: You have a point. It does sound odd, as if I’d lost my nerve half-way through the sentence. Perhaps I shouldn’t have asserted outright ‘She is innocent’ in the first place.

Roxana: The problem is general because your fallibilism is general. It undermines any outright assertion you make about anything.

Sarah: Couldn’t I assert outright ‘It is very probable that she is innocent’?

Roxana: You have already admitted, you are fallible about probabilities.

Sarah: Yes, of course.

Roxana: Therefore you will have to say ‘It is very probable that she is innocent, but it may not be very probable that she is innocent’.

Sarah: That sounds bad too, doesn’t it?

Zac: I’m afraid I can’t recommend you to her as a defence lawyer, Sarah.

Sarah: The problem is asserting something outright, then adding that it may not be so. It doesn’t matter what it’s about, even probabilities.

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